According to polls conducted in 2020, Biden routinely outperformed Trump both nationally and in swing states—often by significant margins. However, the polls this time around put Biden in a more vulnerable position.
WASHINGTON The stock market is at all-time highs, the economy is getting better, unemployment is declining, and inflation is declining. Crime is declining. The output of crude oil in the US is at a record level. The Republican impeachment investigation is stumbling, and a special counsel declined to file charges against President Joe Biden for improperly handling secret material.
Biden finds himself in weaker position?
Though Biden’s reelection campaign is gaining momentum, he still finds himself in a weaker position than when he faced Donald Trump in 2020, when he routinely outperformed him in national and swing state polls, frequently by significant majorities. Trump faces difficulties in spite of his growing legal expenses and four ongoing criminal prosecutions, one of which is scheduled to start trial next month.
Democrats have several different explanations for this.
Senator Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii, stated in an interview, “because we haven’t made our argument yet.”
“Democrats have a strong record on the economy, crime, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, combating climate change, civil rights, human rights, and gun safety. [Trump’s] record was disastrously bad,” he declared. But because we’ve been too busy working, we haven’t spent any money or effort arguing that point. We will be debating that point as we transition into a new season. Once the word gets out, the votes shift.
“Biden has a good amount of time.”
Since he and Trump secured their party’s nominations this month, the president has little over seven months left to go and a significant number of votes to shift, according to polls. The majority of national surveys either show a statistical tie or a Trump lead. In comparison, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, Biden was ahead of Trump at this point in 2020 by roughly 6 points.
Recent polls in the swing states that helped Biden win the presidency, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, mainly indicate dead heats or Trump ahead outside of error margins. Around this time in 2020, swing state surveys frequently showed a sizable Biden lead; today, it’s almost nonexistent.
Bloomberg Recent Poll
A recent poll conducted by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult revealed indications of optimism for President Biden, as his popularity increased in six out of seven swing states during the preceding month, in comparison to President Trump. However, there were limited reasons for celebration as he was either falling behind Trump or achieving a statistical tie in all seven states. The poll indicated that voters’ perceptions of the economy were improving, similar to the findings of a CNBC national survey that revealed a deadlock.
According to Biden’s campaign, Democrats have continuously surpassed the polls since 2022. However, during the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, Democrats had lower performance than the prevailing surveys. The Electoral College confers inherent advantages to Trump. In 2020, Biden secured a 7 million popular vote and narrowly secured an Electoral College victory by 45,000 votes in three states.
Biden campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt refrained from providing commentary on the surveys, but attributed the positive economic progress to him.
Biden Strives to improve the quality of Life
According to the speaker, Joe Biden consistently strives to improve the quality of life for the American populace on a daily basis. The President’s primary objective is to secure the support of the American people, rather than actively seeking their votes. In contrast, Donald Trump’s campaign is characterized by a focus on seeking revenge and payback for himself and his affluent associates.
The Trump campaign asserted that its arguments continue to be robust.
“Inflation remains severely unmanageable, with prices of goods reaching exorbitant levels. The border is a catastrophic situation, with illegal immigrants causing widespread violence in communities throughout the country. Additionally, [special counsel Robert] Hur referred to Crooked Joe as an elderly individual with a poor memory, disqualifying him from participating in the trial,” stated Steven Cheung, the spokesperson for the Trump campaign, in an email. “Democrats and the media should cease engaging in gaslighting tactics towards the American people, considering the extensive harm inflicted by Crooked Joe within a span of four years.”
A portion of Biden’s coalition remains in a state of uncertainty.
Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, expressed skepticism on the potential of the improving conditions to benefit Biden. He argued that the advantages of reduced unemployment and wage growth had not been evenly distributed.
In an interview, he expressed that the economy exhibits heterogeneity. “The elites in our country do not have the same daily experience as many working families in many aspects.” There appears to be a significant disparity, encompassing both economic and cultural factors. That is my intuitive intuition.
Biden should address persistent issues
Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, stated that Biden’s difficulties stem from the reality that voters are still experiencing the negative effects of increased costs, despite the decline in inflation. According to him, Biden should address persistent issues such as fentanyl toxicity, mental health, and education.
“The expenses associated with purchasing or renting a home, as well as the expenses related to pharmaceuticals, are exorbitant,” he stated. He advocated for interventions aimed at challenging the influence of hedge funds in the housing market and advocating for the implementation of a “every drug for every American” policy to reduce medicine costs. In each of these domains, Team Biden has implemented measures that are expected to enhance the situation. “And Trump, to be frank,” he stated. “We have a significant amount of time remaining before the election for this deliberation to occur.”
Democrat Strategist is Optimistic about Biden’s Chances
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who is optimistic about Biden’s chances, stated that a significant portion of voters have not yet registered and that certain members of Biden’s coalition are still uncertain. As a result, surveys indicate that Biden is facing challenges in attracting young and nonwhite votes. He forecasted that the bipartisan support for Biden will increase by “late spring,” specifically in April or May.
“Our perspective, which aligns with the campaign’s perspective, is that it is probable that a portion of the coalition will return to their home state in the coming months as it becomes evident that the Biden-Trump alliance is gaining momentum and the Biden campaign intensifies,” Rosenberg stated. “As a result, I anticipate a slight increase in our position.”
Did the GOP make a mistake in their argument against Biden?
Rosenberg expressed that his optimism can be attributed, in part, to the diminishing GOP case.
The fundamental argument against Biden has significantly diminished during the past few months. The state of the economy is robust rather than feeble. Inflation is decreasing, not increasing. The incidence of violent crime and murder is declining, rather than increasing. “Our domestic energy production has reached unprecedented levels, and there is no ongoing conflict over energy,” he stated. When these factors are removed, the last story that remains is the ‘Biden criminal family’ narrative, which has been revealed as a fallacy in recent weeks, along with Biden’s age.
The border provided them with certain advantages. “I believe they have made a mistake,” he stated, referring to the GOP’s refusal of a bipartisan bill supported by Biden to enforce more stringent border and asylum regulations. “I believe they have provided us with an opportunity to regain a competitive stance on the border or even take a proactive approach in that regard.”
Republicans have limited options
The Republicans are left with limited options. “They lack clear targets to pursue against Biden,” Rosenberg stated. “In my opinion, the probability of this turning into a referendum on Trump has significantly risen in recent weeks.”
Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, who is also running for re-election this year, stated that the presidential contest will last until the very end.
The population in several states exhibits a significant degree of division. I take great pride in the president’s accomplishments and consider myself a valuable contributor to them. However, I anticipate that the upcoming months will not run well. I believe we will need to exert significant effort. In order to achieve success, we must engage in daily battles. “Our success is crucial for the nation,” he stated. “This race will be unparalleled in the nation’s history.”
